"A study of the markets show that the short term is hard to trade, and on this level most people lose. The path to success is to play the big moves. The big money is made in the big moves. The big moves are easy to trade. You get on board the trend. You do not try to catch the exact top or bottom. You just ride the trend and let it make money for you. Look at some of the big trends of our era: silver 1971-1980, up 38 times, gold 1970-1980, up 25 times, DJI 1982-2007, up 18 times, S&P 1982-2007, up 15½ times. In every one of these, as the trend was just beginning to lift off, the vast majority of people decided that the market was much too high and chickened out. I have mentioned the gold bug who, in 1972, with gold at $65/oz., gave up his hope that it would ever hit $70. There was Robert Prechter, who forecast DJI 3,600 in the early 1980s, gave up too soon and remained stubbornly bearish from 1987 to today. If you don’t need the psychological comfort of having others agree with you, then you have the mental toughness to make it as a speculator."
-Howard Katz, June 28th 2010, The Art of Speculation
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